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The euro held near a two-month high
against the USD during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, with
$1.37 firmly in its sight as the market showed only the barest
signs of fatigue after a 6% rally in the past two weeks. The EUR
was up around 0.3% at 1.3650 against the greenback after climbing
as high as 1.3685, its highest since November.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Declines as Stock Market Rallies
The U.S dollar fell against most of its major currencies on Monday,
hitting its lowest level in nearly two-months against the EUR, as
gains in stocks prompted investors to wade into riskier currency
trades. By yesterday's close, the USD fell against the EUR, pushing
the oft-traded currency pair to 1.3650. The dollar experienced
similar behavior against the CHF and closed at 0.9490.
Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator in
today's trading is the Consumer Confidence around 15:00 GMT. This
report is very important and is likely to generate dollar
volatility. Traders should pay close attention to the market as
there will likely be several opportunities for traders to
capitalize on the market fluctuations which are likely to follow
this release.
EUR - EUR/USD Hits Two-Month High
The EUR rallied against the dollar on Monday, hitting a two-month
high near $1.37 as expectations of higher euro zone interest rates
sparked traders to push the currency above important technical
levels. The EUR was up around 0.3% at 1.3650 after climbing as high
as 1.3685, its highest since November.
Political turmoil in Ireland again highlighted problems in indebted
euro zone countries and a suicide bombing at Russia's biggest
airport capped the European currency's rise. But the euro gained
momentum in the New York session, and traders said tough talk on
inflation from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet
on Sunday was a catalyst driving it to its highest level since
November.
In addition, solid data on euro zone industrial orders and a robust
euro zone flash estimate of services purchasing managers activity
also bolstered the currency.
Investors may look for the unusual price volatility to continue in
the EUR/USD as the pair attempts to stabilize and find new support
and resistance lines. Large price jumps such as these are not
common place and present terrific opportunities to take advantage
of the price swings for large profitable gains.
JPY - Yen Experience Mix Results against Major Currencies
The Japanese yen completed yesterday's trading session with mixed
results versus the major currencies. The JPY fell against the CHF
yesterday, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 86.90. The JPY
was unchanged vs. the EUR yesterday and closed its trading session
at around the 112.55 level. The JPY did see some bullishness as
well as it gained 40 points against the USD and closed at around
82.45.
The Japanese markets were expected to have a relatively heavier
effect on the JPY versus its major currency counterparts today as
the Overnight Call Rate was released during the Asian trading
session.
Crude Oil - Crude Oil Falls 1%
Oil fell more than 1% to around $82.70 a barrel on Monday as ample
U.S. inventories were seen and after Saudi Arabia's oil minister
expressed concerns about the influence of speculators on
prices.
A Saudi Arabian oil official issued remarks which indicated that
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could raise
production this year due to a faster than expected growth in demand
for the cartel's oil.
As for today, traders are advised to watch carefully the leading
stock markets and the major economic indicators which will be
published from the U.S. and euro-zone in order to predict the next
movements in oil prices.
Technical News
EUR/USD
The pair has recorded much bullish behavior in the past several
days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may
reverse soon. For example, the daily chart's Stochastic Slow
signals that a bearish reversal is imminent. A downward trend today
is also supported by the 4-hour chart's RSI. Going short with tight
stops may turn out to pay off today.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD cross has experienced a bullish trend for the past 3
weeks. However, it seems that this trend may be coming to an end.
The RSI of the daily chart shows the pair floating in the
overbought territory, indicating that a downward correction will
happen soon. Going short with tight stops might be a wise
choice.
USD/JPY
The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific
direction. The daily chart's Slow Stochastic is providing us with
mixed signals. The 4 hour charts do not provide a clear direction
as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good
strategy today.
USD/CHF
The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating
in neutral territory. However, the 4-hour Chart's RSI is already
floating in oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction
might take place in the near future. Going long with tight stops
might be the right strategy today.
The Wild Card
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices are once again dropping, and the commodity is
currently trading around $87.50 per barrel. Now, the 8-hour chart's
RSI is giving bullish signals, indicating that crude oil may go up.
This might give forex traders a great opportunity to enter the
upcoming bullish trend at a great
price.
